16一场外交游戏(doc)
16、A Diplomatic Game The ambassador entered the Oval Office a minute early, at 10:59 A.M. on December 10th of a year in early 1980s. He was a short, overweight man with a broad Slavic1 face and eyes that would have done a professional gambler proud. They revealed2 nothing. He was a career diplomat, having served in a number of posts throughout the Western world. 　　“ Good morning, Mr. President, Dr. Pelt,” Alexei Arbatov nodded politely to both men. The president, he noted at once, was seated behind his desk. Every other time he'd been here the president had come around the desk to shake hands, then sat down beside him. 　　“ Help yourself to some coffee, Mr. Ambassador,” Pelt offered. The special assistant to the president for national security affairs was well known to Arbatov. Jeffrey Pelt was an academic from the Georgetown University's Center for Strategic and International Studies--an enemy, but a well- mannered enemy. Arbatov had a fondness for3 the niceties4 of formal behavior. Today, Pelt was standing at his boss's side, unwilling to come too close to him. Arbatov did not get himself any coffee. 　　“ Mr. Ambassador,” Pelt began, “ we have noted a troubling increase in your naval activity in the North Atlantic.” 　　“ Oh?” Arbatov's eyebrows shot up in a display of surprise that fooled no one, and he knew it. “ I have no knowledge of this. As you know, I have never been a sailor.” 　　“ Shall we dispense5 with the bullshit6 , Mr. Ambassador?” the president said. Arbatov did not permit himself to be surprised by the vulgarity7. The American president seemed to need a professional like Pelt around to smooth the edges. “ You certainly have nearly a hundred naval vessels8 operating in the North Atlantic or heading in that direction. Chairman of your country and my predecessor agreed years ago that no such operation would take place without prior notification9. The purpose of this agreement, as you know, was to prevent acts that might appear to be unduly10 provocative11 to one side or the other. This agreement has been kept--until now. 　　“ Now, my military advisers tell me that what is going on looks very much like a war exercise, indeed, could be the precursor12 to a war. How are we to tell the difference? Your ships are now passing east of Iceland and will soon be in a position from which they can threaten our trade routes to Europe. This situation is at the least unsettling13, and at the most a grave and wholly14 unwarranted15 provocation. The scope of this action has not yet been made public. That will change, and when it does, Alex, the American people will demand action on my part.” The president paused, expecting a response but getting only a nod. 　　Pelt went on for him. “ Mr Ambassador, your country has seen fit to cast aside an agreement which for years has been a model of East-West cooperation. How can you expect us to regard this as anything other than a provocation?” 　　“ Mr. President, Dr. Pelt, truly I have no knowledge of this.” Arbatov lied with the utmost16 sincerity. “ I will contact my superiors at once to ascertain17 the facts. Is there any message you wish me to pass along?” 　　“ Yes. As you and your superiors will understand,” the president said, “ we will deploy18 our ships and aircraft to observe yours. Prudence19 requires this. We have no wish to interfere with whatever legitimate20 operations your forces may be engaged in. It is not our intention to make a provocation of our own, but under the terms of our agreement we have the right to know what is going on, Mr. Ambassador. Until we do, we are unable to issue the proper orders to our men. It would be well for your government to consider that having so many of your ships and our ships, your aircraft and our aircraft in close proximity21 is an inherently22 dangerous situation. Accidents can happen. An action by one side or the other which at another time would seem harmless might seem to be something else entirely. Wars have begun in this way, Mr. Ambassador.” The president leaned back to let that thought hang in the air for a moment. When he went on, he spoke more gently. “ Of course, I regard this possibility as remote, but is it not irresponsible to take such chances?” 　　“ Mr. President, you make your point well, as always, but as you know, the sea is free for the passage of all, and...” 　　“ Mr. Ambassador,” Pelt interrupted, “ consider a simple analogy23. Your next-door neighbor begins to patrol24 his front yard with a loaded shotgun25 while your children are at play in your own front yard. In this country such action would be technically legal. Even so, would it not be a matter of concern?” 　　“ So it would, Dr. Pelt, but the situation you describe is very different...” 　　Now the president interrupted. “ Indeed it is. The situation at hand is far more dangerous. It is the breach26 of an agreement, and I find that especially disquieting27.I had hoped that we were entering a new era of our relations.We have settled our trade differences.We have just concluded a new grain agreement. You had a major part in that. We have been moving forward, Mr. Ambassador--is this at an end?” The president shook his head emphatically28. “ I hope not, but the choice is yours. The relationship between our countries can only be based on trust. 　　“ Mr. Ambassador,I trust that I have not alarmed you. As you know, it is my habit to speak plainly. I personally dislike the greasy dissimulation29 of diplomacy. At times like this, we must communicate quickly and clearly. We have a dangerous situation before us, and we must work together, rapidly, to resolve it. My military commanders are greatly concerned, and I need to know—today--what your naval forces are up to. I expect a reply by seven this evening.” 　　Arbatov stood. “ Mr. President, I will transmit your message within the hour. Please keep in mind, however, the time differential between the two Capitals--.” 　　“ I expect that some of your country's managers may still be at work. In any case, I will detain30 you no further. Good day.” 一场外交游戏 80年代初某年12月10日上午10点59分，某国大使提早一分钟走进了椭圆形办公室。此 人是个矮胖男子，有着一张斯拉夫人的宽脸庞，目光敏锐，连赌博行家都会为之称羡， 但是一切都深藏不露。他是个职业外交家，在西方世界许多地方任过职。 　　“早上好，总统先生，佩尔特博士，”阿列克谢·阿尔巴托夫彬彬有礼地向这两个人点 头问好。他立刻注意到，总统坐在办公桌后边。以前他每次来时，总统总是绕过桌子来 和他握手，然后坐在他的旁边。 　　“请自己用咖啡,大使先生。”佩尔特说。阿尔巴托夫对这位总统国家安全事务特别助 理十分了解。杰弗里·佩尔特是乔治城大学战略与国际问题研究中心的研究员——是个敌手 ，一个温文尔雅的敌手。阿尔巴托夫十分注意正式场合人们举止的细微之处。今天，佩 尔特站在他上司一边，不愿意和他凑得太近。阿尔巴托夫自己没有去倒咖啡。 　　“大使先生，”佩尔特开了腔，“我们已经注意到贵国海军在北大西洋活动大增，这一 情况令人不安啊。” 　　“喔？”阿尔巴托夫眉毛一抬，表示惊奇，但这骗不了谁，连他自己也清楚。“我对此 一无所知。你们知道，我从未当过水兵。” 　　“咱们还是废话少说好吗，大使先生？”总统说。阿尔巴托夫对这句粗话感到意外， 但还是克制住不溢于言表。美国总统说这种话，似乎需要有个像佩尔特这样的行家在身 边圆圆场。“你们目前有将近100艘海军舰艇在北大西洋活动或者朝那个方向进发。贵国 主席和我的前任在几年前曾达成协议：未经事先通知，不得在该地区进行此类活动。这 一协议的目的你也明白，是为了防止可能出现过分刺激对方的行动。这一协议一直得到 遵守直到现在。 　　“现在，我的军事顾问们告诉我，目前正在发生的一切看上去非常像一场战争演习， 甚至，可能是一场战争的先兆。叫我们怎么说得清到底是什么呢？你们的军舰现在正从 冰岛以东通过，很快就将进入可以威胁我们通往欧洲的贸易航线的位置。这一形势至少 是令人不安的，极而言之，则是一场严重的全然无端的挑衅。这些活动的范围还没有公 诸于众。但情况会发生变化，而一旦情况有了变化，阿列克谢，美国人民就会要求我本 人采取行动。”总统停顿了一下，等着回答，但是阿尔巴托夫只是点了点头。 　　佩尔特接着总统的话说：“大使先生，多年来一直是东西方合作典范的一项协议，贵 国认为已经可以抛之一边了，那你们怎么能期望我们不把这一行动看成是挑衅呢？” 　　“总统先生，佩尔特博士，我真的对此一无所知。”阿尔巴托夫装着一片至诚，但是 他在撒谎。“我会马上和我的上司联系弄清事实的。二位有什么话要我传递的吗？” 　　“有，你和你的上司将会明白，”总统说，“我们将部署我们的舰艇和飞机来监视你们 的活动。为了慎重，我们必须这样做。我们不想干涉贵国军队可能进行的任何合理行动 。我们无意进行挑衅，但是，根据我们的协议条款，我们有权了解正在发生的情况，大 使先生。只有了解清楚以后，我们才能给我方官兵发布恰当的命令。希望贵国政府不妨 考虑一下，双方如此多的舰艇和飞机，靠得又很紧密，这本身就是一种危险的形势。各 种意外事故难免会发生。一方或另一方采取的行动，在其他时候看来似乎并无恶意，但 现在则可能会是截然不同的另一码事。有些战争就是这样开始的，大使先生。”总统向后 靠了靠，好让这种看法在阿尔巴托夫的脑际萦绕片刻。总统继续说道，但比较温和了。 “当然，我认为这种可能性极小，不过，要存这样的侥幸心理岂不是有点不负责任吗？” 　　“总统先生，你跟往常一样，把你的观点阐述得十分清楚，可是你知道，那片海域是 谁都可以自由通过的，并且——” 　　“大使先生，”佩尔特打断了他的话，“打个简单的比方。你的孩子在自己的前院玩耍 ，而你的隔壁邻居却拿着上了子弹的猎枪在他自己的前院里巡逻。在我们这个国家，这 种行动从法律上讲是合法的。可尽管如此，难道这不也是一件令人担心的事吗？” 　　“可不是，佩尔特博士，但你说的情况却是两码事——” 　　这次是总统打断了他的话。“确实不同。目前的形势要远为危险得多。这是破坏协议 ，我认为特别令人不安。我曾希望我们的关系将进入一个新时代。我们已经解决了贸易 上的争议问题，我们刚缔结了一项新的谷物协定。你在其中起了很大作用。我们一直在 前进，大使先生——难道就到此为止了？”总统使劲摇了摇头：“我希望不是，可是这要看 你们了。我们两国的关系只能建立在互相信任的基础上。 　　“大使先生，我相信我没有让你感到不安。你知道，我习惯于坦率陈言。我这个人不 喜欢外交上逢场作戏，装模作样那一套。在当前这样的时刻，我们必须迅速而明确地交 换意见。我们面临着危险的局势，我们必须共同努力，迅速地加以解决。我们的军界领 导人极为关切，我今天就要知道贵国的海军想干什么。我希望在今晚7时以...
16一场外交游戏(doc)